Wired News :MS Exec: Linux Is Going Down

Thu Feb 1 13:40:35 EST 2001

A note from vtsaran at nimbus.ocis.temple.edu:

   Guys, I think this guy Miller sounds like a dying beast. I like many things about WIndows, but I think this defence is sick, to say the least.

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 From Wired News, available online at:
http://www.wired.com/news/print/0,1294,41527,00.html

MS Exec: Linux Is Going Down  
by Michelle Delio  

2:00 a.m. Jan. 31, 2001 PST 

Microsoft thinks Linux is doomed, and predicts that many Linux
businesses will falter and fail before the end of the year.  

These are three key Linux trends to watch for in 2001: a static growth
rate, lessening mainstream interest in the open source operating
system, and a sharp decline in Linux-based companies' stock value,
said Doug Miller, Microsoft's group product manager for competitive
strategies.     

"There really isn't much value in free," said Miller, who also
contends that the latest release of the Linux kernel, 2.4, doesn't
have the features required for widespread business use.  

"And the recent security problems with Linux, coupled with the lack of
key enterprise elements in the new kernel, really call into question
whether Linux should be used at all," Miller added.   Lately,
Microsoft has vacillated between dismissing Linux entirely and seeing
it as a vast and looming threat on the competitive landscape. 

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, in a presentation given to Morgan Stanley
Dean Witter earlier this month, said, "I think you have to rate
competitors that threaten your core higher than you rate competitors
where you're trying to take from them. So in some senses (that) puts
the Linux phenomenon and the Unix phenomenon at the top of the list." 
"That really is Job 1 for us, because that's the threat to the Windows
business. That's the threat through that to the Office business. So
I'd put the Linux phenomenon really as threat No. 1."   Laurent
Meynier, chief executive officer of Olliance -- an open source
consultancy firm -- noted that Microsoft may be trying to get a grasp
on Linux as Microsoft shifts to a more net-centric business model
where it will have to compete with Linux in a space where Linux has
gained dominance.   "They are very focused on their Internet-based
plans right now, and perhaps word of the wide range of solid solutions
that will be shown at this week's LinuxWorld show has also raised some
concern that Linux is finally, really and rapidly coming of age."  

But Meynier says that Linux isn't the answer for every need. He
believes that Linux is particularly well suited for use in handheld
devices and Internet servers.  

"But you probably wouldn't want to run Linux on a laptop, unless the
manufacturer supports Linux; otherwise, it's a real chore to find and
install the right hardware drivers. And there is a lack of Linux
applications for companies that use knowledge management systems.
Linux also lacks some key features that you'd want for a data center
such as hot swappable CPUs and memory."  

"Linux wasn't originally built with these purposes in mind, so the
evolution of the code will take longer," Meynier said.  

Microsoft's Miller predicted that the same shutdowns that have plagued
dot-coms will soon be happening to firms that have focused their
business on Linux.  

"Free does not sustain a business," Miller said. "Development costs
money, QA (quality assurance) costs money, support costs money. We
have yet to see a business model in the Linux world that has any
chance of long-term success."  

But in open source development, "free" does not mean "of low or no
value" or even "no cost," said Olliance's Meynier.  

"In this case, 'free' equals more customer and developer control,
better influence over software quality, and the ability to create
software that meets specific user needs," he said.  

Meynier pointed to IBM as an example of a successful business model
that leverages open source and said that the "value-added embedded
work" by Red Hat is another extremely potent business model.  

Matt Porter, CEO of LinuxGruven, a Linux support company, also
disputed Miller's claims that "free" equals bad business.  

"Yes, development and QA cost significant amounts of money," Porter
said. "And Microsoft is an expert at spending money for developing
products. That's the basis of their software lifecycle model. In the
open-source realm, the tables have turned."  

Miller also said that Microsoft believes that "in the rush to get on
the enterprise bandwagon," the new Linux kernel lacks some of the key
elements required for enterprise use.  

"Based on the warnings from the developers and confusing messages from
the distributors, it is clear the long-heralded 2.4 Linux kernel is a
long way from being ready for business use," said Miller. "The kernel
is just the beginning, still raw technology."  

But some Linux developers say that the newly released kernel was just
meant to be a beginning, and invited Miller to this week's LinuxWorld
show in New York, which they say will be a showcase for business
solutions.  

"Linux 2.4 does lack serious system management tools, but there's a
slew of new products coming down the ramp very soon that will bring
Linux into even more enterprises," said Tony DePointa, a Linux
application developer.   
Microsoft's Miller also took a shot at one of Linux's strongholds:
servers. Miller claimed that recently released numbers from IDC System
Software Research show that "Linux growth in server OS share has been
flat for two quarters, and Unix and Novell continue to fall.  

"Meanwhile, Microsoft continues to grow at a faster pace than the rest
of the industry and faster than any other server OS."  

IDC manager Al Gillen would not confirm Miller's analysis.  

"We're just finalizing our report for Linux right now, and haven't
released those numbers to the press or the public so I can't comment
on specifics. But I can tell you that according to our preliminary
forecast, Linux is moving along nicely. It is certainly not fading
away," Gillen said.  

Miller asserted that the "industry vision" centers around Web-based
services, which allow software and data to be delivered over networks
instead of having to be installed or stored on user's computers.  

And "Microsoft is leading the charge with .Net," said Miller. "Linux
is not leading anything, it is simply providing a 'free' operating
system."  

Miller also believes that Linux has hidden costs, something he
believes is particularly true in the embedded device market, where
developers need to get their products to the market fast.  

"Using Linux does not help the developer deliver their product
faster," Miller said. "In fact, it can actually take longer due to
platform development work that would not be necessary with a platform
like CE."  

Fred Salloum, director of marketing at Applied Data Systems, said that
there are tradeoffs in all operating systems.  

"In the case of Linux, the barriers to entry are less monetary and
more experiential," said Salloum, who added that many of Applied Data
Systems' Linux-oriented customers who are seeking rapid production of
applications products are either well versed in Linux, or have access
to Linux experts.  

"While the Linux community is presently building this support
structure, many baseline applications are still undergoing
development. In this context, the existing support structure of CE is
quite beneficial to those who are not so Linux-oriented and are trying
to develop their applications quickly," Salloum said.  

Miller also said there is already definite evidence of Microsoft's
predicted slowdown in the Linux marketplace, with "Corel getting out
of Linux, (and) VA Linux not meeting the expectations. "For a
so-called exploding market, this should not happen. Sales of actual
products are relatively flat.  

"And the pending merger of LinuxCare with TurboLinux is nothing more
than a consolidation to try and salvage each other's businesses."  

David LaDuke, vice president of marketing at LinuxCare, disputes those
charges, but said he was "glad to see that the deal registered on
Microsoft's public radar. That speaks volumes."  

"Both LinuxCare and TurboLinux are heading into the acquisition ...
from positions of strength, with major customers and investors in both
companies. We have substantial cash reserves, and this move will only
accelerate our profitability within the year," said LaDuke.  

"We firmly believe that our combined resources will help to take
open-source software deep into the enterprise, to places where Windows
isn't even on the short list."   

Related Wired Links:  

Linux Looks to Take on the World  
Jan. 31, 2001 

Microsoft Crashes: The Fallout  
Jan. 26, 2001 

MS Failure: Geeks Lose Their Site  
Jan. 24, 2001 

Vaporware? Ha! Linux 2.4 Arrives  
Jan. 5, 2001 

Undoing the Mac OS Facelift  
Dec. 5, 2000 

Wild Worm With Pro-Linux Message  
Dec. 1, 2000 

Microsoft's Window Into Linux  
Oct. 12, 2000 